Gulbuddin Hekmatyar

Gulbuddin Hekmatyar first rose to prominence in Afghanistan during the 1970s when he founded Hezb-e-Islami, which means “The Islamic Party.”

Despite its origins in university student groups, Hekmatyar’s organization soon became known as one of the major Afghan guerrilla factions, following the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979.

During the next decade, the United States spent billions of dollars in covert assistance to fight the Soviet forces.  U.S. officials funneled the money through Pakistan’s spy agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence, and the lion’s share went to Hekmatyar.

The ISI director general in the 1980s, Hamid Gul, says he knows Hekmatyar well.  He told me the ethnic-Pashtun mujahideen leader, who originally studied in the university to become an engineer, was an important asset for both the United States and Pakistan at the time. 

But Gul says Hekmatyar was always an outspoken critic of the United States.  He says it is Hekmatyar’s nature that is probably urging him now to negotiate with the current Afghan government for a share in the post-U.S.-invasion Afghanistan.

“He is very ambitious, and that is probably his undoing,” said Hamid Gul. “I mean, he is politically very, very ambitious; there is no doubt about it.  He has a charismatic personality, and his Hezb-e-Islami is a very well-organized force, and I think he could still draw a lot of loyalists.”

But the director of the Kabul-based Afghan Rights Monitor, Ajmal Samadi, has a less flattering recollection of the militant leader.  After the Soviets withdrew and the U.S. support for Afghan guerillas dried up, Hekmatyar’s fighters battled with other rebel factions in Kabul for control of the country.

Samadi describes how Hekmatyar solidified a reputation as a ruthless warlord.

“Forces under his command were accused of very, very appalling crimes, for instance: the rape of women, the use of child soldiers, sexual exploitation of children, shelling civilian-populated areas, blockading the city and denying people access to essential services,” said Ajmal Samadi.

Gulbuddin Hekmatyar briefly served as Afghanistan’s prime minister in the 1990s.  But when his rival Mullah Mohammad Omar seized control of the government in 1996 with his Taliban fighters, Hekmatyar fled to Iran.

He apparently left that country sometime after the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks in the United States.  Soon after, Hekmatyar announced his support for his former rivals, the Taliban, and his opposition to the U.S.-led invasion of Afghanistan.

The United States targeted Hekmatyar with a drone missile strike in 2002, but missed.  U.S. officials labeled the Hezb-e-Islami leader a terrorist the following year, saying he participated in and supported terrorist acts committed by al-Qaida and the Taliban.

In recent years, analysts believe Hekmatyar has been living in Pakistan while directing his fighters in operations against coalition and Afghan troops in eastern and northern Afghanistan.

Speaking from Kabul, the director of Afghanistan’s Center for Research and Policy Studies, Haroun Mir, says Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s desire to reconcile with the Taliban is most likely making Hekmatyar consider shifting his alliances, as he has done many times in the past.

“Hekmatyar is keen to reach out to Kabul and find a negotiation because he knows that he could not enjoy the kind of support the Taliban receive from Pakistan and al-Qaida,” said Haroun Mir.

He points to the fact that earlier this month, a firefight erupted between some of Hekmatyar’s fighters and the Afghan Taliban, killing about 50 people.  It is unclear what caused the fight, but Mir says if the Taliban and Afghan government reach an agreement, Hekmatyar might be sidelined.

Daoud Sultanzoy is a member of the Afghan Parliament.  He told me that Hekmatyar appears to have more of a willingness to negotiate than the Taliban.

“The Taliban are saying one of the conditions is the removal of foreign troops and they will not accept the constitution of Afghanistan, but Mr. Hekmatyar or at least his aides are saying that they are prepared to sit down and talk about these things,” said Daoud Sultanzoy.

U.S. officials cautiously welcomed talks this week between President Karzai and the Hezb-e-Islami delegation.  But they stressed that any groups involved in peace talks must renounce violence and support for the insurgency, live in accordance with the Afghan constitution and sever any ties with al-Qaida and other terrorist networks.

It is unclear whether Gulbuddin Hekmatyar is prepared to do all those things, but at the very least, analysts say he is willing to talk.  At the same time, there is a fear that his violent reputation against Afghan civilians could undermine the Karzai administration.

What do you think?  Are peace talks with Hekmatyar in the best interest for Afghanistan?

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Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani says the military operation targeting Taliban militants in the South Wazirstan tribal region is over.

Pahari Sahib, Wikimedia Commons

Mr. Gilani told reporters that Pakistan’s military is now focusing on the Orakzai tribal region in an effort to chase the Pakistani Taliban leadership that is believed to have fled there from South Waziristan.  Once fully launched, the operation in Orakzai will be the third major offensive against the Pakistani Taliban this year.

Here is a breakdown of the situation:

Part 1 –  How has Pakistan’s offensive against the Taliban evolved in 2009?

Part 2 — How successful has the military been?

Part 3 — How have the militants responded?

Part 4 — How is the public responding to the offensive?

U.S. officials have commended the Pakistani government for launching the South Waziristan operation.  But as the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan strengthens, Washington continues to urge Islamabad to expand its operations to take on the Afghan Taliban and al-Qaida agents believed to be based in Pakistan’s North Waziristan tribal region.

The former security chief of the tribal regions, retired Brigadier-General Mahmood Shah, tells me that the United States’ priorities are very different than Pakistan’s.  The United States wants Pakistan to focus on militants that are part of a global network of terrorists.  But Shah says Pakistan wants to focus on its immediate threat: militants it believes have launched a series of high-profile attacks across the country.  Since the beginning of October, these attacks have killed more than 500 people.

If you click the map above, you can see that North Waziristan is between South Waziristan and the Orakzai tribal regions.  I told Shah it appears the militants escaped from South Waziristan through its northern neighbor — where the United States wants Pakistan to focus its forces.

Shah says the militants Pakistan is targeting have always had a presence in Orakzai.  He says the military chose to attack the Pakistani Taliban’s base in South Waziristan before broadening its campaign.  He says that he believes his country will be in a better position to help the United States and its allies once it takes care of its domestic insurgency.

Click here for the story.

http://enews.ferghana.ru/article.php?id=2167

Pakistani intelligence officials say they believe a suspected U.S. missile strike in late August killed Uzbek militant leader Tahir Yuldashev in the South Waziristan tribal region.

Click here for the story.

Officials say Yuldashev had links to al-Qaida.  If authorities can confirm his death, this would be a major blow to the militants and a huge success for Pakistani forces fighting for control in the area.

But why are we talking about Uzbeks in Pakistan?  Uzbekistan is nearly 1,000 kilometers (620 miles) away.  And why do officials always mention the fearsome reputation of these Uzbek fighters?

Yuldashev was the leader of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan.  He began fighting against the Uzbek government in the 1990s with the goal of creating an Islamist state in Central Asia.  Analysts believe Uzbek authorities pushed Yuldashev to the border area of Tajikistan and northern Afghanistan, where the Taliban gave him refuge.

But following the U.S.-led invasion in 2001, analysts say Yuldashev fled to Pakistan’s tribal areas.  Now this is where it gets tricky…

Yuldashev was still under the Taliban’s protection while in Pakistan.  At this time, analysts say the Pakistani government was largely ignoring the Taliban in its territory because the militants were focused on fighting in Afghanistan.  But Yuldashev’s fighters started making problems for the Taliban by launching attacks in parts of Pakistan.

Ultimately, the Pakistani military moved in and took on the Pakistani Taliban, which analysts say was sheltering Yuldashev’s men.

The miltary is now closing in on militant strongholds.  While the Pakistani Taliban is fighting for its land, the Uzbeks are fighting for their basic survival.  They have nowhere else to go.  They can’t go home to Uzbekistan.  They can’t flee to Afghanistan and into the arms of the coalition forces.  They can’t even go elsewhere in Pakistan.  Uzbeks can’t really blend in among Pakistanis, and they’ve already annoyed their caretakers by causing problems.

Basically, they are a cornered with no other option but to fight, and they’ve been fighting for nearly two decades.  They have nothing to lose here, which makes them particularly dangerous.

http://www.fbi.gov/wanted/topten/fugitives/laden.htm

The U.S. deputy chief of mission in Pakistan, Gerald Feierstein,  told reporters today in Islamabad that the United States “strongly believes” Osama bin Laden is alive and in Pakistan.

Feierstein said Washington thinks bin Laden is operating from Pakistan’s tribal areas near the Afghan border.

Click here for the story.

This could explain why there has been an increased number of suspected U.S. drone attacks in Pakistan’s tribal areas.

Feierstein also said the United States believes fugitive Afghan Taliban leader Mohammad Omar is in the southern province of Baluchistan, possibly hiding in the capital of Quetta.

Again, the Pakistani government denies all the allegations, but Feierstein’s comments do reaffirm my post from yesterday.

My question is: What are Pakistanis supposed to take from this?

On Wednesday, the U.S. Congress approved legislation that triples non-military aid to Pakistan during the next five years.  That means starting next year, the Pakistani government will receive $1.5 billion annually for various development projects, including efforts to improve education, democratic institutions, human rights and conditions for women and children.  That’s a pretty strong signal from Washington.

But at the same time, the U.S. officials on the ground here are telling the local media that Baluchistan, specifically Quetta, is “high on Washington’s list.”  That angers the Pakistani government, as well as its people.  And the people are already angry at drone attacks in North Waziristan.

I wonder if Washington will unify its message.  The Pakistani people definitely want to know.

rewardsforjustice.net

Three suspected U.S. missile strikes hit Pakistan’s Waziristan tribal regions from late Tuesday through Wednesday.  Pakistani officials say the attacks killed at least 18 militants.

The first strike targeted a Pakistani Taliban commander’s house in South Waziristan.  The other two hit suspected Afghan Taliban locations in North Waziristan.

Click here for the story.

What’s the difference between the Pakistani Taliban and Afghan Taliban?  First of all, they are organizationally distinct from each other.  But most importantly, analysts say the Afghan Taliban only fights in Afghanistan, while its Pakistani version is believed to only operate in Pakistan against the state.  Some analysts use this reasoning to say that Pakistan gives the Afghan Taliban a free pass.

This leads us to U.S. Ambassador to Pakistan Anne Patterson’s recent comments about the United States shifting its gaze to Pakistan’s southwestern province of Baluchistan.  She told The Washington Post that:

“In the past, we focused on al-Qaida because they were a threat to us.  The Quetta Shura mattered less to us because we had no troops in the region.  Now our troops are there on the other side of the border, and the Quetta Shura is high on Washington’s list.”

U.S. officials believe the Quetta Shura is a council of exiled Afghan Taliban leaders headed by Mohammad Omar and based in the Pakistani city of Quetta (a charge Pakistan and even the Afghan Taliban deny).  The troops Patterson is referring to are the coalition forces stationed across the border in Taliban-controlled southern Afghanistan.

All the local papers led with this interview today.  Whether or not the United States is actually planning to launch drone attacks in Baluchistan (or even a full-scale ground invasion), this is not helping to dissuade the Pakistani people from their anti-America mindset.  Especially after many Pakistanis view U.S. missile attacks in the northwest as an affront to their country’s sovereignty.

Also, Baluchistan is a powder keg already with fuel shortages and a strong desire to secede from the federal government.  Just one U.S. missile could be the spark that sets off a massive chain reaction.