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UPDATE:  Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani has backtracked on his earlier comments.  Click here for the story.

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Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani says the military operation targeting Taliban militants in the South Wazirstan tribal region is over.

Pahari Sahib, Wikimedia Commons

Pahari Sahib, Wikimedia Commons

Mr. Gilani told reporters that Pakistan’s military is now focusing on the Orakzai tribal region in an effort to chase the Pakistani Taliban leadership that is believed to have fled there from South Waziristan.  Once fully launched, the operation in Orakzai will be the third major offensive against the Pakistani Taliban this year.

Here is a breakdown of the situation:

Part 1 –  How has Pakistan’s offensive against the Taliban evolved in 2009?

Part 2 — How successful has the military been?

Part 3 — How have the militants responded?

Part 4 — How is the public responding to the offensive?

U.S. officials have commended the Pakistani government for launching the South Waziristan operation.  But as the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan strengthens, Washington continues to urge Islamabad to expand its operations to take on the Afghan Taliban and al-Qaida agents believed to be based in Pakistan’s North Waziristan tribal region.

The former security chief of the tribal regions, retired Brigadier-General Mahmood Shah, tells me that the United States’ priorities are very different than Pakistan’s.  The United States wants Pakistan to focus on militants that are part of a global network of terrorists.  But Shah says Pakistan wants to focus on its immediate threat: militants it believes have launched a series of high-profile attacks across the country.  Since the beginning of October, these attacks have killed more than 500 people.

If you click the map above, you can see that North Waziristan is between South Waziristan and the Orakzai tribal regions.  I told Shah it appears the militants escaped from South Waziristan through its northern neighbor — where the United States wants Pakistan to focus its forces.

Shah says the militants Pakistan is targeting have always had a presence in Orakzai.  He says the military chose to attack the Pakistani Taliban’s base in South Waziristan before broadening its campaign.  He says that he believes his country will be in a better position to help the United States and its allies once it takes care of its domestic insurgency.

Click here for the story.

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http://enews.ferghana.ru/article.php?id=2167

http://enews.ferghana.ru/article.php?id=2167

Pakistani intelligence officials say they believe a suspected U.S. missile strike in late August killed Uzbek militant leader Tahir Yuldashev in the South Waziristan tribal region.

Click here for the story.

Officials say Yuldashev had links to al-Qaida.  If authorities can confirm his death, this would be a major blow to the militants and a huge success for Pakistani forces fighting for control in the area.

But why are we talking about Uzbeks in Pakistan?  Uzbekistan is nearly 1,000 kilometers (620 miles) away.  And why do officials always mention the fearsome reputation of these Uzbek fighters?

Yuldashev was the leader of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan.  He began fighting against the Uzbek government in the 1990s with the goal of creating an Islamist state in Central Asia.  Analysts believe Uzbek authorities pushed Yuldashev to the border area of Tajikistan and northern Afghanistan, where the Taliban gave him refuge.

But following the U.S.-led invasion in 2001, analysts say Yuldashev fled to Pakistan’s tribal areas.  Now this is where it gets tricky…

Yuldashev was still under the Taliban’s protection while in Pakistan.  At this time, analysts say the Pakistani government was largely ignoring the Taliban in its territory because the militants were focused on fighting in Afghanistan.  But Yuldashev’s fighters started making problems for the Taliban by launching attacks in parts of Pakistan.

Ultimately, the Pakistani military moved in and took on the Pakistani Taliban, which analysts say was sheltering Yuldashev’s men.

The miltary is now closing in on militant strongholds.  While the Pakistani Taliban is fighting for its land, the Uzbeks are fighting for their basic survival.  They have nowhere else to go.  They can’t go home to Uzbekistan.  They can’t flee to Afghanistan and into the arms of the coalition forces.  They can’t even go elsewhere in Pakistan.  Uzbeks can’t really blend in among Pakistanis, and they’ve already annoyed their caretakers by causing problems.

Basically, they are a cornered with no other option but to fight, and they’ve been fighting for nearly two decades.  They have nothing to lose here, which makes them particularly dangerous.

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http://www.fbi.gov/wanted/topten/fugitives/laden.htm

http://www.fbi.gov/wanted/topten/fugitives/laden.htm

The U.S. deputy chief of mission in Pakistan, Gerald Feierstein,  told reporters today in Islamabad that the United States “strongly believes” Osama bin Laden is alive and in Pakistan.

Feierstein said Washington thinks bin Laden is operating from Pakistan’s tribal areas near the Afghan border.

Click here for the story.

This could explain why there has been an increased number of suspected U.S. drone attacks in Pakistan’s tribal areas.

Feierstein also said the United States believes fugitive Afghan Taliban leader Mohammad Omar is in the southern province of Baluchistan, possibly hiding in the capital of Quetta.

Again, the Pakistani government denies all the allegations, but Feierstein’s comments do reaffirm my post from yesterday.

My question is: What are Pakistanis supposed to take from this?

On Wednesday, the U.S. Congress approved legislation that triples non-military aid to Pakistan during the next five years.  That means starting next year, the Pakistani government will receive $1.5 billion annually for various development projects, including efforts to improve education, democratic institutions, human rights and conditions for women and children.  That’s a pretty strong signal from Washington.

But at the same time, the U.S. officials on the ground here are telling the local media that Baluchistan, specifically Quetta, is “high on Washington’s list.”  That angers the Pakistani government, as well as its people.  And the people are already angry at drone attacks in North Waziristan.

I wonder if Washington will unify its message.  The Pakistani people definitely want to know.

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